How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Everton CD or Draw 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Everton CD and 1.0 from La Serena, so Everton CD come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Everton CD or Draw. This covers Everton CD or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Everton CD have won three of the last five meetings.
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