How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Deportes Limache to win 48%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Deportes Limache and 1.2 from Everton CD, so Deportes Limache come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Deportes Limache to win. Deportes Limache are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.2), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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