How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 4.5 goals 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Shanghai Shenhua and 1.5 from Beijing Guoan, so Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Shanghai Shenhua come into this on two straight wins. Beijing Guoan come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.5 goals in total (xG 2.0-1.5), keeping it under more often than not (about 79%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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