What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Shanghai Shenhua and 1.1 from Henan Songshan Longmen, so Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Shanghai Shenhua come into this on two straight wins. Henan Songshan Longmen come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.9 goals in total (xG 1.8-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. At around 69% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
