How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 62%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Zhejiang Professional and 1.7 from Chengdu Rongcheng, so Chengdu Rongcheng come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.2 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 64%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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