Atalanta v Kairat Almaty prediction

What to expect

We expect about 2.5 goals from Atalanta and 0.5 from Kairat Almaty, so Atalanta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Atalanta come into this on two straight draws. Kairat Almaty come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Atalanta to win. Atalanta are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.5), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.