What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Heart Of Midlothian and 1.8 from FC Nordsjaelland, so FC Nordsjaelland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FC Nordsjaelland to win. FC Nordsjaelland shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.8), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.42, which works out at about 41 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Heart Of Midlothian a draw or better. We make it about 64%: a lean, not a lock.
