What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from St. Truidense VV and 1.2 from FC Iberia 1999, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FC Iberia 1999 to win. FC Iberia 1999 shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.2), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 9.02, which works out at about 11 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
St. Truidense VV only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 42%.
