What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from CAR Independiente del Valle and 0.9 from CD Tolima, so CAR Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CAR Independiente del Valle to win. CAR Independiente del Valle are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.9), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.57, which works out at about 39 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for CD Tolima to spoil this. We only make this about 59%, so it's far from a lock.
