What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Universidad Católica (CHI) and 0.8 from Estudiantes de La Plata, so Universidad Católica (CHI) come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Universidad Católica (CHI) to win. Universidad Católica (CHI) are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.62, which works out at about 38 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Estudiantes de La Plata only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 52%, so it's far from a lock.
