How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made CD Tolima (Draw No Bet) 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from CD Tolima and 1.0 from CAR Independiente del Valle, so CD Tolima come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CD Tolima (Draw No Bet). CD Tolima are favoured here (xG 1.4-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a CD Tolima defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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