What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from CD Coquimbo Unido and 1.0 from CA Platense, so CD Coquimbo Unido come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CD Coquimbo Unido to win. CD Coquimbo Unido are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.0), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
CA Platense only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 51%.
