How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made CR Flamengo to win 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from CR Flamengo and 0.6 from CAR Independiente del Valle, so CR Flamengo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CR Flamengo come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CR Flamengo to win. CR Flamengo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.6), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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