How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made CA Platense to win 36%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from CA Platense and 1.1 from Fluminense FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CA Platense to win. CA Platense are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.75, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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