What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from LDU de Quito and 1.2 from SE Palmeiras, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: SE Palmeiras to win. SE Palmeiras shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.2), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.67, which works out at about 37 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓LDU de Quito have won one of their last four.
✓SE Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws.
Recent meetings
9 Sept 2026Palmeiras 1 - 0 LDU de Quito
