What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from CR Flamengo and 0.5 from Cruzeiro EC, so CR Flamengo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: CR Flamengo to win. CR Flamengo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.5), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Cruzeiro EC only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 59% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
