What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from SC Corinthians Paulista and 0.8 from CA Rosario Central, so SC Corinthians Paulista come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: SC Corinthians Paulista to win. SC Corinthians Paulista are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.8), and we make them about 39% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.98, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
CA Rosario Central only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 39%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
