What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from SC Corinthians Paulista and 0.7 from Estudiantes de La Plata, so SC Corinthians Paulista come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: SC Corinthians Paulista to win. SC Corinthians Paulista are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.7), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.95, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓SC Corinthians Paulista have not won any of their last five.
✓Estudiantes de La Plata have not won any of their last five.
Recent meetings
10 Sept 2026Estudiantes 1 - 1 Corinthians
