How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Briton Ferry Llansawel (Draw No Bet) 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Briton Ferry Llansawel and 1.2 from Airbus UK Broughton, so Briton Ferry Llansawel come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Briton Ferry Llansawel (Draw No Bet). Briton Ferry Llansawel are favoured here (xG 2.0-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Briton Ferry Llansawel defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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