How it turned out
We projected about 4.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Holywell Town to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Holywell Town and 1.7 from Trefelin BGC, so Holywell Town come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Holywell Town to win. Holywell Town are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-1.7), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.00, which works out at about 33 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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