How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cardiff Met FC to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cardiff Met FC and 1.3 from Cambrian United, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cardiff Met FC to win. Cardiff Met FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.3), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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