What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Cardiff Met FC and 1.9 from Caernarfon, so Caernarfon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Caernarfon or Draw. This covers Caernarfon or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Caernarfon are unbeaten in their last three — two wins and one draw.
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