Colwyn Bay v Haverfordwest: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Colwyn Bay or Draw 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Colwyn Bay host Haverfordwest at home in a Cymru Premier clash on 26 September 2026. The Bay sit sixth in the 16-team table with 19 points from ten games and a +6 goal difference. They are three points clear of Barry Town above them and three points ahead of Llandudno below, so a win would keep them solidly in the top half and push them a little closer to a European spot. Haverfordwest sit in the relegation zone at 11th place with ten points from nine matches and a –7 goal difference. They are four points behind Cardiff Met, the team just above the drop zone, and only two points ahead of Briton Ferry Llansawel below them. A positive result would give the visitors a lifeline, while a loss could see them slip deeper into danger. The two sides are clearly separated in the standings, with Colwyn Bay the stronger side on the numbers we have.

Colwyn Bay arrive on the back of three straight victories, a run that has lifted their confidence. Their most recent game was a 5-2 win over Barry Town at home, followed by a 5-0 demolition of Holywell Town away, and before that a 2-1 home success against Connah’s Quay Nomads. In those three matches they have scored twelve goals and let in only three, keeping one clean sheet. All three fixtures produced three or more goals, and both teams found the net in two of them. The Bay have shown they can score freely and also protect a lead when needed. Their last appearance was eight days ago, so they will be well rested and eager to keep the momentum going.

We back Colwyn Bay or a draw. The price of 1.18 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a wider safety net while still favouring the home side. Colwyn Bay are expected to score at least once in 72 % of their games and have a 40 % chance of scoring twice or more, while Haverfordwest’s chances are lower at 58 % and 26 % respectively. Our chance that this selection will be right sits at 75 % in our view. For the pick to go wrong, Haverfordwest would need to pull off a surprise win or a high-scoring draw, something that looks unlikely given their recent form and goal deficit. In our opinion the price looks good and the odds of a Colwyn Bay win or a stalemate are strong enough to make this a sensible way to back the lean without demanding a precise result.