How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Apollon Limassol to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Karmiotissa and 1.8 from Apollon Limassol, so Apollon Limassol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Karmiotissa come into this on two straight defeats. Apollon Limassol come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Apollon Limassol to win. Apollon Limassol shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.8), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Apollon Limassol have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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