How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made APOEL Nicosia to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from APOEL Nicosia and 0.8 from Omonia 29 Maiou, so APOEL Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: APOEL Nicosia to win. APOEL Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.8), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
APOEL Nicosia have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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