What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Olympiakos Nicosia and 1.6 from AEK Larnaca, so AEK Larnaca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Olympiakos Nicosia come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.6), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
AEK Larnaca have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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