What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Olympiakos Nicosia and 1.6 from Apollon Limassol, so Apollon Limassol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Apollon Limassol to win. Apollon Limassol shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.6), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Apollon Limassol have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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