How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Jablonec to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Sparta Prague and 1.1 from Jablonec, so Sparta Prague come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Jablonec to score 1 or fewer. This is about Jablonec's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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