How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.0 goals from Viktoria Plzen and 0.8 from FC Zlin, so Viktoria Plzen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.8 goals between the two (xG 3.0-0.8), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come.
