Aarhus v Midtjylland: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Both teams to score 60%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

The game looks very even. Our goal expectations are 1.6 for Aarhus and 1.5 for Midtjylland, which means there is almost nothing separating the two sides on paper. With those numbers the match should be open, with chances likely at both ends rather than one team dominating.

Looking at recent form, Aarhus have struggled, failing to win in their last five league games and only managing three draws. Midtjylland, on the other hand, have been unbeaten in their last five, picking up three wins and two draws. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Midtjylland have won twice, the rest have been draws and the games have averaged 1.8 goals. The most recent encounter ended 0-0, showing that both sides can keep a clean sheet but also that goals are not guaranteed.

We back both teams to find the net. Each side is averaging around a goal and a half per game, so it is reasonable to expect at least one goal from each. The price of 1.55 is shorter than what we feel the match deserves, making it a tempting offer. Our confidence in this outcome is about 60 out of 100.

For the bet to fail, both sides would need to keep a clean sheet. That would require a very tight defensive display from Aarhus, who have not won recently, and a rare miss from Midtjylland’s attack despite their recent good form. We hold our view moderately strong, but we know a shut-out would overturn it.

Recent meetings