How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Aarhus to win 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Aarhus and 1.0 from Silkeborg, so Aarhus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Aarhus come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aarhus to win. Aarhus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.0), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Aarhus have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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