What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Horsens and 1.8 from Aarhus, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.6 goals between the two (xG 1.8-1.8), landing about 58% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Horsens have won three of their last five.
✓Aarhus have not won any of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
3 Mar 2023Aarhus 2 - 0 Horsens
26 Aug 2022Horsens 2 - 1 Aarhus
13 Dec 2020Horsens 1 - 2 Aarhus
18 Oct 2020Aarhus 3 - 0 Horsens
24 Feb 2020Horsens 1 - 2 Aarhus
