How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 50%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Viborg and 1.4 from Nordsjaelland, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.2-1.4), and three is enough to land it, landing about 53% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Nordsjaelland have won three of the last five meetings.
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