How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Midtjylland to win 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Silkeborg host Midtjylland in a Superliga clash that looks open with chances at both ends. The numbers show Midtjylland as the stronger side, and the goal expectations (about one for Silkeborg and a little over two for Midtjylland) point to a game where both teams can find the net.
Recent form backs that picture. Silkeborg have lost four games in a row and have only one win in their last five league outings. Midtjylland, on the other hand, have taken three wins, one draw and one loss in the same span. In their last five meetings, Silkeborg have not won – Midtjylland have four victories and one draw, with an average of over four goals per game. The most recent meeting ended 0-4 to Midtjylland.
Our pick is a Midtjylland win. We think they have about a 63 % chance to come out on top. The price of 1.49 is lower than what we feel the game is worth, so it looks attractive. Backing Midtjylland outright is the simplest way to back the side we think will win.
The view could be wrong if Silkeborg manage to break their losing streak and keep a clean sheet, or if the game turns very tight with few chances. That would be a surprise given the recent results and head-to-head record. We still hold our opinion strongly, but we are aware a single goal could change everything.
Recent meetings
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