What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Emelec and 0.9 from Libertad, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Emelec to win. Emelec are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.9), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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