How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Independiente del Valle to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Independiente del Valle and 1.1 from Universidad Católica, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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