What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from LDU de Quito and 0.7 from Deportivo Cuenca, so LDU de Quito come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: LDU de Quito to win. LDU de Quito are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓LDU de Quito have won one of their last three.
✓Deportivo Cuenca have won one of their last three.
