What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Orense and 0.9 from Guayaquil City, so Orense come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Orense come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Orense to win. Orense are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
