How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Universidad Católica to win 53%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Delfín and 1.5 from Universidad Católica, so Universidad Católica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universidad Católica to win. Universidad Católica shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.5), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.99, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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