What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Barnsley and 1.3 from Crewe, so Barnsley come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Crewe come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. There should be goals here — around 2.9 between the two (xG 1.6-1.3) — but they look like coming from one end. A clean sheet for one side is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
