What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Ipswich and 2.0 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.0), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Ipswich have won three of their last five.
✓Arsenal have won three of their last five.
Recent meetings
20 Apr 2025Ipswich 0 - 4 Arsenal
27 Dec 2024Arsenal 1 - 0 Ipswich
