How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 51%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from West Ham and 1.7 from Fulham, so Fulham come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
West Ham come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.7), landing about 53% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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