Abo Qir Semad v Ghazl Al Mahalla: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.7 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Abo Qir Semad or Draw 70%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.8 goals from Abo Qir Semad and 0.9 from Ghazl Al Mahalla, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Abo Qir Semad or Draw. This covers Abo Qir Semad or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.