How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Wadi Degla FC to win 43%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Wadi Degla FC host Al Mokawloon Al Arab at home in the Egypt Premier League on 15 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the bottom half of the table. Wadi Degla are 11th out of 20, five points from four games with a +1 goal difference, just one point clear of the relegation line where National Bank sit. Al Mokawloon are 13th, four points from four games and a –1 goal difference, also in the relegation zone, level on points with Petrojet-Suez above them and Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI below. A win for either side moves them a step away from the danger spots, while a loss could drag them closer to the drop.
Wadi Degla have not been prolific but have managed to keep the scores tight. In their last four matches they have taken three points from a win and a draw, conceding just two goals while scoring three. The run shows a side that can grind out results at home and that they are capable of scoring at least once in most games. Their recent form gives them a small edge in confidence heading into this fixture.
Al Mokawloon’s recent run has been similar in its low-scoring nature. Over the same four-game stretch they have collected three points from a win and a draw, scoring two goals and letting in three. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw, a game in which they managed to find the net but also kept the opposition from scoring twice. That match underlines their ability to stay in games but also highlights a limited attacking threat.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be close affairs with few goals. The numbers we have suggest another tight encounter – Wadi Degla are expected to score about 1.3 goals and Al Mokawloon about 0.8, pointing to a low-scoring contest. Both sides have a decent chance of scoring at least once, but the odds of either side hitting twice are low. We expect a careful, defensive game where a single goal could decide the outcome.
Our pick is Wadi Degla FC to win. The price of 2.25 matches our own view of the match and looks good. Wadi Degla are the stronger side on the numbers and have a 43 % chance of coming out on top, which is the highest probability we see. For this to go wrong they would need to fail to score at all – a 24 % chance – or concede twice, which would put the game out of reach. If those scenarios happen, Al Mokawloon could steal a point, but we think the balance still favours a narrow home win.
Recent results
Al Mokawloon Al Arab have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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