How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Rakow look a bit stronger on paper, but the numbers suggest a tight match. Both teams are only expected to score around one or two goals each, so we expect a low-scoring affair. The game should stay close, with neither side likely to dominate.
Recent results show a clear contrast. Rakow have lost their last three league games and have only two wins in their last five matches. Jagiellonia, on the other hand, have been much better, with three wins, one draw and just one loss in the same period. In their head-to-head history, Jagiellonia have the edge, winning three of the last five meetings while Rakow have only one win and one draw. Those games have been high-scoring, averaging 3.6 goals, and the most recent encounter ended 0-2 to Jagiellonia.
We pick the under 3.5 goals. The expected total is about 2.7 goals, and we think the price of 1.46 is longer than our own reading, making it attractive. Clear chances should be rare, so a low-scoring result feels right.
For this pick to go wrong, both sides would need to find the net many times – at least four goals in total. That would require a sudden burst of attacking play that we do not see coming. Our confidence is strong; we believe the game will stay under the line about 73% of the time.
Recent meetings
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