What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Aalesund and 1.6 from Sarpsborg 08, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.2 goals (xG 1.6-1.6), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 81%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Aalesund have won two of their last five.
✓Sarpsborg 08 have not won any of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
22 Oct 2023Aalesund 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08
29 May 2023Sarpsborg 08 3 - 1 Aalesund
11 Sept 2022Aalesund 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08
22 May 2022Sarpsborg 08 1 - 2 Aalesund
13 Sept 2020Aalesund 0 - 1 Sarpsborg 08
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