How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Aalesund and 1.5 from Sarpsborg 08, so Aalesund come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.2 goals (xG 1.6-1.6), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 81%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sarpsborg 08 have won three of the last five meetings.
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