How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Lillestrom and 1.5 from Molde, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Lillestrom come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 1.5-1.5), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 79%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Molde have won three of the last five meetings.
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