What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from Aalesund and 1.4 from Start, so Aalesund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.8 goals between the two (xG 2.3-1.4), landing about 59% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Aalesund have won one of their last five.
✓Start have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
21 Mar 2026Start 1 - 1 Aalesund
30 Aug 2020Start 1 - 0 Aalesund
29 Jul 2020Aalesund 3 - 2 Start
9 Sept 2016Start 1 - 4 Aalesund
16 May 2016Aalesund 1 - 1 Start
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. We only make this about 59%, so it's far from a lock.
