How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Aalesund (Draw No Bet) 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Aalesund host Start at home in the Eliteserien on 4 September 2026. Aalesund sit 15th of 16 with 15 points from 18 games and a -15 goal difference, just above the relegation line. Start are bottom of the table with 13 points, a -19 goal difference, and sit two places below Aalesund. Both clubs are fighting to stay out of the drop zone, so every point matters. The numbers we have for the match suggest Aalesund will score about 2.3 goals and Start about 1.6, pointing to an open game with chances for both sides.
Aalesund’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won once, drawn four times and lost three times. The most recent result was a 2-1 loss away to Viking. Before that they beat Langevåg 13-0 away, then drew 5-5 with Valerenga at home, drew 1-1 away at HamKam, lost 6-2 at home to Tromso and drew 1-1 with Viking at home. In those eight matches they have scored 26 and let in 23, keeping only one clean sheet. Seven of the games featured both teams scoring and six had three or more goals, showing a tendency for high-scoring affairs.
Start have come into the game on two straight wins. Their last eight games contain three victories and five defeats, with no draws. The most recent win was a 4-1 home victory over KFUM Oslo, followed by a 2-1 away win at Flekkefjord. Prior to that they lost 1-0 to Fredrikstad at home, then 3-0 to Viking at home, beat Kristiansund 2-1 away and suffered a 3-0 home loss to Rosenborg. Over those eight games Start have scored 10 and conceded 14, failing to find the net in three matches. Their last four away outings gave them two wins and two defeats.
When the two clubs meet, the games are usually lively. In the last five meetings Aalesund have won twice, Start once and two matches ended in draws. The average total of goals in those encounters is three. The most recent meeting on 21 March 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw, a result that reflected the balanced nature of the tie. Given the recent scoring patterns of both sides, we expect another match with several goals and chances at both ends.
Our pick is Aalesund on a draw-no-bet basis. The price of 1.66 matches our view of the game and the 61 % chance we assign to a positive outcome. The draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result, so only a loss for Aalesund would hurt us. For the pick to fail, Start would need to win outright, which would require them to tighten up defensively and score at least two goals while keeping Aalesund under two. If the game stays open and Aalesund find their usual scoring touch, the pick should hold.
Recent results
Aalesund have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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