How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Fredrikstad and 2.0 from Bodo/Glimt, so Bodo/Glimt come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fredrikstad come into this on four straight wins. Bodo/Glimt come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.7 goals (xG 0.8-1.9), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 82%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Bodo/Glimt have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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