How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Bodo/Glimt to win 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.5 goals from Bodo/Glimt and 0.7 from Kristiansund, so Bodo/Glimt come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Kristiansund come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bodo/Glimt to win. Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.5-0.7), and we make them about 86% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.09, which works out at about 92 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Bodo/Glimt have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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